Texas manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in July, with production hitting a three-year high and outlooks turning positive after months of gloom, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The production index—a key measure of factory conditions—jumped 20 points to 21.3, its strongest reading since mid-2021. Economists had expected a far weaker report, with the consensus forecast calling for a headline general business activity index of -9.0, according to Econoday. Instead, the index rose 14 points to -0.9, signaling a stabilization in activity after five consecutive months of deterioration.
Other gauges also improved. New orders remained negative but climbed to -3.6 from -7.3. Capacity utilization and shipments moved into positive territory, at 17.3 and 2.7, respectively.
Business sentiment showed signs of a rebound. The company outlook index jumped 14 points to 4.7, its first positive reading in six months. The outlook uncertainty index fell to 11.2 from 15.3, suggesting firms were slightly more confident about future conditions.
Labor market measures firmed. The employment index rose to 8.4, with 17 percent of manufacturers reporting net hiring and only 9 percent reporting net layoffs. The hours worked index surged to 7.7, the highest since 2021.
Input cost pressures remained elevated. The raw materials price index held steady at 41.7—well above the series average—while the finished goods price index eased to 11.1, suggesting that businesses were not passing on increased costs to consumers. Wage growth was unchanged, with the wages and benefits index at 13.2.
Outlook measures improved broadly. The future production index rose eight points to 30.3, and the future general business activity index climbed to 19.0. Most other forward-looking measures also advanced, though some remain below long-term norms.
