Nikki Haley swears that tonight won’t be the end of her presidential campaign, but if she can’t make it competitive against Donald Trump her donors might not give her much of a chance.
Will Trump march out to an early and commanding lead among Granite State voters or will Haley keep it close? Could Dixville Notch’s unanimous votes for Haley signal an upset win? How many independents who might be inclined to vote for Biden in the general election cast their vote in the GOP primary to try to deny Trump the nomination? There are several subplots swirling around the New Hampshire primary, and we’ll know the answers to most of them later this evening.
Our partners at DDHQ will be tabulating the results as they come in, and you can follow along in real time right here at Bearing Arms in the handy widgets below. I’ve included the Democratic primary as well, mostly for curiosity’s sake since Biden won’t actually be on the ballot tonight. Will he still win the state’s primary with write-in votes, or could tonight be the start of Dean-mentum for Rep. Dean Phillips; the lone Democrat challenging Grandpa Joe for the Democratic nomination? The political subplots aren’t just on the right side of the aisle tonight.
Most polls in the state close at 7 p.m ET, but the last precincts won’t stop voting until an hour later, so don’t expect to see any results until at least 8 p.m. ET. Once that hour is at hand, however, we should see a flurry of precincts reporting, and it won’t be long before we have a good sense of how today’s primary is going to shake out.
The RealClearPolitics polling average currently has Trump with a 19-point lead over Haley, including a Boston Globe poll released today that has Trump up by 22. In fact, Trump has been the one with momentum in the New Hampshire polls over the last week, with other GOP candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis dropping out but endorsing the former president over Haley along the way. Haley may not need to win outright tonight to stay in the race, but if she’s not at least competitive the calls for her to drop out will become even louder than they already are.